Since Vladimir Putin has held the\u00a0reins of\u00a0the Russian leadership, Russia has actively integrated into\u00a0the global economy, making the\u00a0era of\u00a0his rule even more liberal in\u00a0an economic respect than it was under former President Boris Yeltsin. Russia ranked seventh in\u00a0the world for\u00a0stock market capitalization at\u00a0the time of\u00a0the 2008 crisis, foreign assets in\u00a0its banking system reached 26 percent, and\u00a0foreign trade increased by\u00a0almost five times from\u00a02000 to\u00a02008.<\/p>\n
The\u00a0number of\u00a0Russians traveling abroad rose from\u00a09.8 million in\u00a02000 to\u00a032.7 million in\u00a02008, and\u00a0Russia’s rate of\u00a0development in\u00a0modern communications and\u00a0various segments of\u00a0the Internet economy was one of\u00a0the fastest in\u00a0the world.<\/p>\n
But the\u00a0situation began to\u00a0change in\u00a02011 when two important circumstances became clear. On\u00a0one hand, the\u00a0relative success of\u00a0the Russian economy gave rise to\u00a0a call for\u00a0political change, and\u00a0many anticipated a\u00a0“new perestroika” under the\u00a0more progressive and\u00a0tech-savvy President Dmitry Medvedev.<\/p>\n
On\u00a0the other hand, it became evident that Russia lacked the\u00a0mobilization and\u00a0technological capacity to\u00a0achieve large-scale modernization and\u00a0end the\u00a0country’s reliance on\u00a0natural resource exports in\u00a0the near future.<\/p>\n
That began Russia’s “reversal of\u00a02012”\u00a0\u2014 the\u00a0point at\u00a0which the\u00a0political elite understood that a\u00a0gas and\u00a0oil economy worked best under a\u00a0nondemocratic “power vertical” and\u00a0that restructuring the\u00a0country’s political foundations in\u00a0hopes of\u00a0achieving an\u00a0uncertain result\u00a0\u2014 and\u00a0at a\u00a0time when mass public protests were on\u00a0the rise\u00a0\u2014 was simply too risky.<\/p>\n
Russia began turning away from\u00a0Europe, and\u00a0the West as a\u00a0whole, not during the\u00a0Ukrainian revolution in\u00a0February, but when Putin began his third term as president in\u00a02012. The\u00a0fact that many Western leaders in\u00a0recent years had what Polish President Bronislaw Komorowski called “hopes for\u00a0Russia’s democratic modernization” only proves that they misunderstood the\u00a0nature and\u00a0outlook of\u00a0the Russian elite and\u00a0people.<\/p>\n
By\u00a02014, Russia had once again become a\u00a0country whose leadership showed no intention of\u00a0complying with the\u00a0rules of\u00a0foreign or domestic policy. In\u00a0fact, those leaders would probably act even more decisively if economic considerations did not hold them back. But the\u00a0truth is that Russia depends heavily on\u00a0the world economy, even if its political elite believe otherwise.<\/p>\n
Hardships will hit Russia’s private businesses hardest, even while the\u00a0government continues pumping budgetary funds into\u00a0bailouts for\u00a0state-owned corporations headed by\u00a0Putin’s close associates. Over the\u00a0next few years, Russia will also fail to\u00a0benefit in\u00a0almost any way from\u00a0its “turn toward the\u00a0East.” The\u00a0failure of\u00a0that project will grow increasingly evident just as anti-Western sentiment in\u00a0Russia declines, giving way once again to\u00a0envy of\u00a0Western prosperity and\u00a0a desire for\u00a0renewed friendship.<\/p>\n
Russia cannot survive without the\u00a0outside world. The\u00a0external debts of\u00a0its banks and\u00a0corporations exceed the\u00a0size of\u00a0its foreign exchange reserves. Russia finances more than half of\u00a0its budget with the\u00a0export of\u00a0raw materials and\u00a0imports 100 percent of\u00a0its computers, mobile communications devices, telecommunications technology and\u00a0many types of\u00a0equipment. Under such conditions, the\u00a0economy itself will have an\u00a0impact on\u00a0the country’s political course.<\/p>\n
Many people raise the\u00a0objection that the\u00a0process of\u00a0globalization in\u00a0the early 20th century did not prevent the\u00a0outbreak of\u00a0World War I. That is true, but 100 years ago European powers were constantly fighting either each other or in\u00a0their colonies, human life meant less, and\u00a0war seemed like a\u00a0perfectly appropriate means for\u00a0solving many problems.<\/p>\n
Today nobody is prepared to\u00a0give their life for\u00a0the sake of\u00a0Gazprom or Rosneft, and\u00a0most citizens and\u00a0politicians understand that it is no longer possible to\u00a0solve serious problems through direct confrontation. Russia’s “foreign offensive” will fail not because of\u00a0a defeat at\u00a0the front, but for\u00a0lack of\u00a0support at\u00a0the rear. And\u00a0the more actively Russia isolates itself from\u00a0the international system, the\u00a0sooner that mutiny will occur.<\/p>\n
No further sanctions are even necessary: Those already in\u00a0effect are enough to\u00a0prod Moscow leaders into\u00a0taking retaliatory measures that will derail Russia’s economy.<\/p>\n
And\u00a0when that happens, Russia will turn once again to\u00a0the West\u00a0\u2014 as it has turned many times in\u00a0the past\u00a0\u2014 in\u00a0search of\u00a0investment, technology and\u00a0innovation. At\u00a0that point, both sides will need to\u00a0build economic and\u00a0political ties that are strong enough to\u00a0resist the\u00a0machinations and\u00a0adventurism of\u00a0a handful of\u00a0oligarchs with close ties to\u00a0the Kremlin.<\/p>\n
Since Vladimir Putin has held the\u00a0reins of\u00a0the Russian leadership, Russia has actively integrated into\u00a0the global economy, making the\u00a0era of\u00a0his rule even more liberal in\u00a0an economic respect than it was under former President Boris Yeltsin. Russia ranked seventh in\u00a0the world for\u00a0stock … Continue reading ![\"Russia](\"http:\/\/www.w-t-w.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/09\/Russia-and-Europe.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"