I\u2019ve written before about the possibility of China suffering its own Minksky moment– the point when a debt-driven speculative bubble comes to a sudden and nasty end. Yet there\u2019s also evidence the country may be approaching something of a Henry Ford moment, when a manufacturing-based economy matures to point where workers can afford to buy the products they’re making. The reality, as unsatisfying as it may be to those looking for a dramatic headline, is probably somewhere in between.<\/p>\n
Authors David Hoffman and Andrew Polk predict Chinese gross domestic product growth will drop below 4 percent in the next decade. At the same time, more optimistic takes from the Asia Society Policy Institute and the Rhium Group argue that financial upgrades are underway in China that could produce a more sustainable growth path. Those who fear a slowing economy might spark riots and instability also have to be heartened by new data that suggest incomes across China — which is what matters most to ordinary Chinese — are rising more than is commonly acknowledged.<\/p>\n
For now, the best strategy for outsiders may be to look the other way, as best they can. Instead of obsessing over every tick up or down in China\u2019s GDP growth rate, the investment world needs to give Chinese leaders time and space to implement the reforms they\u2019ve pledged thus far.<\/p>\n
There are many ways to take China’s pulse. Economists’ favorite reality-check indicators include HSBC’s purchasing manager’s index, rail-freight traffic, export and import data (which can be confirmed by cross-checking the numbers with trading partners), electricity-use trends and the trajectory of prices of commodities China dominates like iron ore and coal. Even if this is a non-starter, let’s at least encourage Beijing to forgo a growth target next year.<\/p>\n
Xi’s challenge was clear last week when the global media convulsed over news China had grown the slowest in five years in the third quarter. Editors and bankers tripped over themselves to urge Beijing to do more to spur growth. This is what\u2019s truly hypocritical: Even though everyone acknowledges that China must stop artificially pumping up its economy, markets panic at the slightest hint GDP is losing altitude — as if China were some giant company that must constantly impress us.<\/p>\n
The last thing China should do is embark on a fresh stimulus kick to placate the nail biters: That would result merely in more debt and unproductive investment and even bigger asset bubbles. The world needs a stable China more than it needs a fast-growing one. And on that front, the economy is doing surprisingly well.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" William Pesek writes:\u00a0\u00a0 Is China headed for a boom or bust? Depending on whom you read, the world\u2019s most populous nation is on the cusp of either a debt meltdown, or a middle-class expans I\u2019ve written before about the possibility … Continue reading ![\"China's](\"http:\/\/www.w-t-w.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/Chinas-Economy-300x206.jpg\")
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