{"id":30846,"date":"2015-11-07T20:24:13","date_gmt":"2015-11-07T19:24:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.w-t-w.org\/en\/?p=30846"},"modified":"2015-11-11T21:22:30","modified_gmt":"2015-11-11T20:22:30","slug":"30846","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.w-t-w.org\/en\/30846\/","title":{"rendered":"Guessing About the US Fed’s Interest Policy"},"content":{"rendered":"

The New York Fed reports: \u00a0By now it is common knowledge that over the past two years the primary source of stock buying have been corporations themselves (recall Goldman’s admission that “buybacks have been the largest source of overall US equity demand in recent years”) with two consecutive years of near record stock repurchases. However, now that a December rate hike appears practically certain following the “pristine” October jobs report, suddenly the question is whether the recent strong flows into bond funds will continue, and generously fund ongoing repurchase activity.<\/p>\n

The latest fund flow report from BofA puts this into perspective: \u00a0The increase in interest rates is starting to impact US mutual fund and ETF flows.<\/p>\n

More concerning for corporations than even fund flows, which will surely see even bigger outflows now that both yields are spreads are set to blow out making debt issuance far less attractive to corporations whose cash flows continue to deteriorate, is what the NY Fed reported as activity by Primary Dealer, i.e., the most connected, “smartest people in the room” who indirectly execute the Fed’s actions in the public markets, in the most recent week.<\/p>\n

As the charts below show, the Primary Dealers aren’t waiting for the December announcement to express how they feel about their holdings of both Investment Grade and Junk Bond (mostly in the longer, 5-10Y, 10Y+ maturity buckets where duration risk is highest).<\/p>\n

Indeed, as of the week ended October 28, Primary Dealer corporate holdings tumbled across both IG and HY, plunging to the lowest level in years in what can only be called a rapid liquidation of all duration risk.<\/p>\n

Investment Grade Bonds:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

And Junk Bonds:<\/p>\n

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Why would dealers be liquidating their corporate bond portfolios at such a fast pace?<\/p>\n

For junk, the obvious answer is that with ongoing concerns around rising leverage, not to mention yields being dragged higher by the ongoing pain in the energy sector, this may be merely a proactive move ahead of even more selling.<\/p>\n

But for IG the answer is less clear, and the selling likely suggests fears that any December rate hike will see spreads blow out even further, and as a result dealers are cutting their exposure ahead of December.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The New York Fed reports: \u00a0By now it is common knowledge that over the past two years the primary source of stock buying have been corporations themselves (recall Goldman’s admission that “buybacks have been the largest source of overall US … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30846","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-finance"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t