William Pesek writes:  Indonesia has come a long way since Oct. 20, when Joko Widodo was sworn in as president. Unfortunately, the distance the country has traveled has been in the wrong direction.

Expectations were that Widodo, known as Jokowi, would accelerate the reforms of predecessor Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono — upgrading infrastructure, reducing red tape, curbing corruption. Who better to do so than Indonesia’s first leader independent of dynastic families and the military?

In 10 years at the helm, Yudhoyono dragged the economy from failed-state candidate to investment-grade growth star.  After 291 days, however, Jokowi seems no match for an Indonesian establishment bent on protecting the status quo.

Investors are already voting with their feet. The Jakarta Composite Index has fallen 13 percent from its April 7 record high, one of Asia’s biggest plunges in that time. And foreign direct investment underwhelmed last quarter, coming in at $7.4 billion, little changed from a year earlier in dollar terms.

Jokowi has plenty of time to turn things around; 1,535 days remain in his five-year term. But the “halo effect” MasterCard’s Matthew Driver says Jokowi carried into office is fast fading as Indonesia’s 250 million people flirt with buyer’s remorse.

First, Jokowi must step up efforts to battle weakening exports. I

Next, Jokowi must decide what kind of leader he wants to be: a craven populist or the modernizer Indonesia needs. That means taking on entrenched interests and thinking bigger. Take Jokowi’s industrialization push. Understandably, he wants to support the development of manufacturing to boost exports and cut a persistent current-account deficit. But Jokowi needs to complement that policy with investments in education and training. 

While it’s still early for Jokowi, Indonesia is already paying a price for his mismanagement. The rupiah is down 13 percent over the past 12 months — and the Federal Reserve’s first post-quantitative-easing rate hike is still looming on the horizon. 

This is a moment to question how far the entire Southeast Asia region has come in recent decades. Thailand is fast losing steam as the latest military junta to rule the nation neglects the economy. Malaysia’s currency is at 17 year lows as Prime Minister Najib Razak tries to explain $700 million that allegedly made its way into a bank account he controls. And now Indonesia is losing the investment it worked so hard to win back since Suharto’s ouster. Jokowi can still turn things around, but he’s got a lot of convincing to do — both inside Indonesia and out.