Cancer: When Market Economies Don’t Make Sense

Market economies driven by profit may not always be the best answer to problems.

The vaccine, called CimaVax, has been researched in Cuba for 25 years and became available for free to the Cuban public in 2011. The country’s Center for Molecular Immunology signed an agreement last month with Roswell Park Cancer Institute in Buffalo, New York to import CimaVax and begin clinical trials in the United States.    The vaccine is reported to cost about $1.  For every American to receive a vaccination is worth about $320 million.    According to Dr. Kelvin Lee, Jacobs Family Chair in Immunology and co-leader of the Tumor Immunology and Immunotherapy Program at Roswell Park: 

The cost of cancer care in the U.S. is about $125 billion per year.  Drug costs are probably less than half but definitely a significant part of that.  If you compare $320 million one time  with tens of billions each year for drugs to treat cancer it is clear why a market based economy doesn’t want the vaccine.  The value to the economy does not compute in the drug company’s incentivization.  How much money they can make is the incentive.  When you consider that the total economic cost of cancer each year is $894 billion, the immense cost of the pharma profit motivation is evident. 

Cancer Vaccines

Entrepreneur Alert: Alliance with Government for Clean Energy Projects

Mariana Mazzucato writes:  The global agreement reached in Paris last week is actually the third climate agreement reached in the past month. The first happened at the end of November, when a group of billionaires led by Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg, and Jeff Bezos announced the creation of a $20 billion fund to back clean-energy research. On the same day, a group of 20 countries agreed to double their investment in green energy, to a total of $20 billion a year.

Of the two pre-Paris announcements, it was that of the Breakthrough Energy Coalition (BEC) grabbed the headlines.  If a technological breakthrough is needed in the fight against climate change, whom should we expect to provide it, if not the wizards of Silicon Valley and other hubs of free-market innovation?

On its own, the free market will not develop new sources of energy fast enough. The payoff is still too uncertain. Just as in previous technological revolutions, rapid advances in clean energy will require the intervention of a courageous, entrepreneurial state, providing patient, long-term finance that shifts the private sector’s incentives. Governments must make bold policy choices that not only level the playing field, but also tilt it toward environmental sustainability.

Advances in clean energy will require the involvement of both the public and the private sector. Because we do not yet know which innovations will be the most important in decarbonizing the economy, investment must be allocated to a wide array of choices. Long-term, patient finance must also be available to help companies minimize uncertainty and bridge the so-called “Valley of Death” between basic research and commercialization.

The BEC’s argument – that the “new model will be a public-private partnership between governments, research institutions, and investors” – shines a welcome spotlight on the relationship. Unfortunately, however, aside from Gates and his colleagues, there are few signs that the private sector can be counted on to lead the way.

The energy sector has become over-financialized; it is spending more on share buybacks than on research and development in low-carbon innovation. The energy giants ExxonMobil and General Electric are the first and tenth largest corporate buyers of their own shares. Meanwhile, according to the International Energy Agency, just 16% of investment in the US energy sector was spent on renewable or nuclear energy. Left to their own devices, oil companies seem to prefer extracting hydrocarbons from the deepest confines of the earth to channeling their profits into clean-energy alternatives.

Meanwhile, government R&D budgets have been declining in recent years – a trend driven partly by under-appreciation of the state’s role in fostering innovation and growth, and more recently by austerity in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.

The main public-sector bodies playing a leading role in promoting the diffusion of green-energy technologies are state development banks. Indeed, Germany’s KfW, the China Development Bank, the European Investment Bank, and Brazil’s BNDES are four of the top ten investors in renewable energy, amounting to 15% of total asset finance.

The public sector can – and should – do much more. For example, subsidies received by energy corporations could be made conditional on a greater percentage of profits being invested in low-carbon innovations.

While charitable donations by billionaires certainly should be welcomed, companies should also be made to pay a reasonable amount of taxes. After all, as the BEC’s manifesto points out, “current governmental funding levels for clean energy are simply insufficient to meet the challenges before us.” And yet, in the UK, for example, Facebook paid just £4,327 in tax in 2014, far less than many individual taxpayers.

The willingness of Gates and other business leaders to commit themselves and their money to the promotion of clean energy is admirable. The Paris deal is also good news. But they are not enough.

Government and Clean Energy

P2P Lending Important in China

Liu Mengkang writes:   Last month, China’s leaders revealed details of the 13th Five-Year Plan, which will guide the economy’s trajectory until 2020. Gone are the directives to expand industrial production at a breakneck pace that characterized previous five-year plans. Now, the focus is on achieving sustainable long-term growth, underpinned by domestic consumption, a stronger services sector, entrepreneurship, and innovation.

The Internet – which already has more than 680 million active users in China – will play a key role in facilitating this shift. In particular, online peer-to-peer (P2P) lending, a streamlined approach to credit allocation, may hold the key to expanding and deepening China’s financial sector, enabling firms to grow and innovate, and bolstering domestic consumption.   P2P Lending in China

 

Giant Step Forward to Halt Global Warming

Over two hundred countries gathered for a conference on global warming in Paris.  Earlier in the week 50 countries and the EU countries made a preliminary agreement.

Now all the participating nations agreed to an ambitious goal of halting average global warming at no more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial temperatures — and of striving for a limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius if possible.

The agreement still faces hurdles. It will go into effect only if 55 countries that account for 55% of total global greenhouse gas emissions ratify it.  A giant step forward for mankind and womankind.

Not a Drop to Drink Susan Rennie

Not a Drop to Drink
Susan Rennie

Solar Power in the Developing World?

Xavier Lemaire writes: The International Solar Alliance announced by India at the Paris climate conference invites together 120 countries to support the expansion of solar technologies in the developing world.

The cost of solar cells has decreased spectacularly over the past four decades, and the trend seems likely to continue. Solar energy has moved from a niche market for providing power in remote places (at the very beginning in 1958 to space satellites) to a mainstream technology which feeds into the national grid.

Most richer countries have been supporting solar power for some time and the rest of the world is now catching up, turning to solar not only for energy access in remote areas but to power cities. Emerging countries such as China, India, Brazil, Thailand, South Africa, Morocco or Egypt are investing in large solar plants with ambitious targets. In developing countries such as Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Senegal or Ghana, solar farms or the large roll-out of solar home systems are a solution to unreliable and insufficient electricity supplies.

Most developing countries benefit from high solar radiation.  Source: SolarGIS © 2015 GeoModel Solar

Large solar farms can be built in just a few months – compared to several years for a coal plant and even longer for a nuclear plant – without generating massive environmental and health damages. Modular decentralised generation with solar is a way to increase access to energy while still remaining on top of rapidly increasing appetites for electricity.

Culture of innovation

This alliance could boost the solar market in the Global South by accelerating the circulation of knowledge, facilitating technology transfer and securing investments. Such a partnership would aim to create a common culture among people working in solar energy. Permanent innovation is the key to success in a field where technologies evolve fast and where norms and standards are not yet established. So an alliance could help countries exchange policy ideas while benchmarking performance against each other.

The decrease of the price of solar cells: a long term trend. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance & pv.energytrend.com 

Indeed in developing countries, where regulations and regimes tend to be less stable, investments suffer from a perceived risk. Given that the initial construction of solar plants makes up most of their cost (sunlight, after all, is free so ongoing expenses are minimal), the business model requires them to run for a long period. High risk means higher costs of financing the initial investment. Countries with well-designed regulatory frameworks and policies can reduce risk and attract investors.

Not California or Spain – this is Egypt. Green ProphetCC BY

The alliance could also support a network of universities and local research centres in each country to capitalise on local experience and build knowledge. Research and development can then more easily target the specific needs of developing countries.

… and the real politics of renewables

The intensification of globalisation and competition between technology firms and utilities is sparking a revolution in the electricity sector which could result in a new world of energy providers. A number of countries are keen to position themselves as leaders.

For the moment, both China and India want massive investments in solar only on top of further investments in new coal and gas plants. They need to make their growth less carbon intensive – but do not yet consider solar power as a complete substitute for fossil fuels.

But renewables accounted for nearly half of all new power generation capacityacross the world last year. As the cost of solar power is falling to the same level as traditional energy supplies all over the world, some players in the electricity sector are – willingly or not – shifting away from fossil fuels. The decarbonisation of the electricity sector may be not just an empty political pledge, but an economic necessity.

 

PwC: The Greenest Office in London

Are environmentalists overlooking the impact of for-profit businesses on the greening of the world.

When PwC decided to refurbish its unloved central London office, it thought it would be doing well to achieve a BREEAM “excellent” rating. Then it realised it could do rather better than that …

Which office building has the highest BREEAM rating ever? Could it be the Co-op’s glamorous new headquarters in Manchester? Or that beacon of sustainability in London’s Docklands, the Siemens

Crystal? Or could it be Embankment Place, a nineties air rights scheme over London Charing Cross station that is so leaky it couldn’t be sufficiently pressurised to get a test reading?

Incredibly, the last building on this list has pipped the others with a chart-topping post-completion BREEAM score of 96.31%. This isn’t the first time occupier PwC has been at the top of the BREEAM charts. The professional services firm achieved the first BREEAM “outstanding” rating with its More London office near London Bridge in 2011. But making a brand new building super-efficient is relatively easy compared with a refurbishment, particularly this one, as Embankment Place is a post-modern warren of oddly shaped rooms and isolated eyries and is in one of the most congested parts of London, making the refurbishment particularly challenging.

According to PwC’s real estate director Paul Harrington, staff had mixed feelings about the office. “It’s a fantastic location but everyone hated the building,” he explains, adding that the entrance was particularly depressing. “It was heavy, monolithic and dark with a fountain that stank of chlorine.” Two atriums in the building were ringed by cellular offices, leaving the main floorplates devoid of any natural light. Vertical circulation was difficult and hidden away stairwells meant the only practical way to travel between floors was in the overused lifts.

The lease was due to expire in 2015 so PwC was faced with the choice of moving or refurbishing the building to make it more acceptable to staff. It plumped for the latter which included making the building much more energy and water efficient. Harrington says sustainability was a priority for PwC but an accountancy firm inevitably wants a return on its investment. “There is no point throwing money at something unless there is a good return,” he says, adding that measures to improve building performance must have a payback of less than four years.

The building entrance is below Charing Cross station, with the main building over the station

Initially a BREEAM “excellent” rating was targeted. “We had a clear aspiration at More London to get a BREEAM ‘outstanding’,” says Harrington. “Here we thought ‘excellent’ was the best we could get but as we developed our thinking we thought we could take this further.”

The BREEAM analysis has been done by services engineer ChapmanBDSP. “We looked at what the key credits were to get a BREEAM ‘outstanding’ and saw we didn’t have to go much further to achieve this,” says Darren Coppins, ChapmanBDSP’s head of sustainability. He adds PwC wanted an EPC A rating even though a BREEAM “outstanding” can be achieved with an EPC rating of B. This meant the primary focus was on energy. Coppins says a range of options was explored including covering the whole roof of the building with PV panels and wind turbines and using a fuel cell to provide heat and power.   The Greenest Office in London- PwC

pwc central london office2

Chan Zuckerberg Maxing Out?

TNe consequences of the Zuckerberg birth announcement.

Matt Levine writes:  The Chan Zuckerberg Initiative, to which Mark Zuckerberg and Priscilla Chan have pledged to donate 99 percent of their Facebook stock, is not a charitable foundation, but just an LLC. That is, it’s just a pot into which Zuckerberg and Chan can put their money, and out of which they can give money to charities, or for-profit investments, or political advocacy, or whatever.

One upshot of this is that they won’t get a tax deduction for putting money into that pot, because it is not a charitable foundation. This is of course not at all important to them, because they don’t have that much taxable income (Zuckerberg is paid $1 a year, and most of their wealth is in unrealized capital gains). Also, they are planning to give away 99 percent of the shares that make up the bulk of their fortune, and giving away 99 percent of your money to shield yourself from income taxes on the other 1 percent is economically nonsensical.

But a surprising number of people are making a claims like this: There’s an almost overnight financial benefit, too: The Facebook founder will deduct the fair value of his gift to his foundation from his taxable income in the year he makes the donation. A donor like Zuckerberg could realize a tax benefit equal to about one-third of the value of his gift.

Nope! No foundation, no tax benefit.

Elsewhere, Dylan Matthews has some ideas for what Mark Zuckerberg should do with his money, including giving it to his college roommate or spending it on monetary policy lobbying. (These are mostly not jokes, though who’s to say what a joke is really.)

David Auerbach asks, Can We Trust the Hacker Philanthropists?
Here’s the truth: No matter how good their intentions, the net result of most such efforts has typically been neutral at best, and can sometimes be deeply destructive. The most valuable path may well be to simply invest this enormous pool of resources in the people and institutions that are already doing this work (including, yes, public institutions funded by tax dollars) and trust that they know their domains better than someone who’s already got a pretty demanding day job. That may not be as appealing to the cult of disruption within the tech echo chamber, but would be exactly the kind of brave and unexpected move that might offer Max a great example of how to engage with the real world that the rest of us live in.

stork-1

Entrepreneur Alert: Technologies Impacting the Future

First there was the rise of smartphones, than tablets came along and finally cloud services hit the mainstream. But what’s next? Which technologies will shape the near future, especially from a professional point of view? IBM asked more than 5,000 C-level executives from 70 countries which technologies they think will be particularly important in the next three to five years. Most CxOs agree that cloud computing and mobile solutions will continue to play a key role, while the Internet of Things is expected to make a big impact as well.

Technologies Shaping the Future

Entrepreneur Alert: Cuba

The Rocky Road to Globalization

About 50 American businesses came to Havana for a trade expo, many of them intrigued but still unclear how to make money in a Communist-ruled country of 11 million people who have little purchasing power.

With detente raising hopes that full commercial ties could be restored, U.S. companies are being drawn to Cuba. But it is a market whose attraction defies convention, given that foreign businesses complain about the island’s bizarre dual-currency system, rigid labor market and opaque legal guarantees.

One U.S. company that is in line to open the first American factory in Cuba in more than half a century is interested in the island only because its co-founder was born here.

Alabama-based Cleber LLC says it has been approved by the Cuban government to assemble tractors at the special development zone surrounding the port of Mariel. But because of the continuing U.S. trade embargo, Cleber would need special U.S. permission to open shop.

“We can open businesses anywhere in the world. Cuba is special on a personal basis,” said Saul Berenthal, a Cuban-American who left the island in 1960, the year after Fidel Castro’s rebels came to power.

U.S. President Barack Obama and Cuban President Raul Castro agreed last December to end Cold War-era animosity and restore diplomatic relations, but the embargo remains in place as only the U.S. Congress can lift it.

Obama has permitted some commerce, such as telecommunications, and allowed U.S. companies to sell to Cuba’s nascent private sector, adding to existing limited business.

The newcomers can look at the experience of privately held shipping company Crowley Maritime Corporation, which has been making losses or breaking even in Cuba for 14 years.

Jacksonville, Florida-based Crowley entered Cuba in 2001, after Washington started allowing food sales to Cuba, largely because Jay Brickman fell in love with Cuba in 1978, when his boss Thomas Crowley first sent him to Cuba to investigate business opportunities.

Brickman, now vice president of government services for Crowley, said he expects profits soon under the market-friendly changes from the U.S. and Cuban governments.

“Is it worth it, only in a business sense? No,” Brickman said from the annual Havana International Fair. His reward has been many friendships and a book he authored, he said.

As Crowley and European, Canadian and Latin American investors can attest, uncertainties hang over the business climate.

“How guaranteed is your investment? Are you sure that you can make profits? Are you sure that there will be no confiscation of your industry?” Brickman said.

There are U.S. companies with a firm business plan. Sprint Corp signed an agreement with Cuba’s state telecoms monopoly Etecsa on Sept. 25 and added an agreement on roaming services on Monday.

Others are global giants that see every market as worthy of capturing. Among the visiting U.S. companies this week were PepsiCo, American Airlines, Boeing, Cargill and Caterpillar.

U.S. businesses at the trade fair appeared united in opposing the embargo. Congressional advocates of the embargo argue it should remain in place to pressure Cuba on human rights.

“It’s not fair for our politicians to be blocking us from at least exploring the opportunity,” said Michael Maisel, international liaison for Commonwealth Packaging Company. “At that point, we take the risk, but at least let us get to that point.”

Cuba Opportunities